I'm surprised it's not more extreme to the upside. I don't think people really understand what happened last week. I think Janet and JPOW are also surprised but for a different reason. They took extreme measures to crush the USD last week and it barely budged. They got the unavoidable asset price inflation that comes with currency dilution but the JPY rescue is still very questionable. 

I can't find anything I don't like about SU...but the chart on FinViz caught my eye as a bit different.  Maybe I just have the 3 push pattern on the brain after posting that one earlier today? 

We already have QE we just call it "not QE" because QE has negative political consequences. What do you call  massive treasury buybacks if not QE? 

There's no way we don't return to QE. The only way is spending cuts and that might as well be like saying if we had a colony on Mars....it's not going to happen without a crisis to force it. 

Nice one! 

Someone has to power SkyNet! Go Utes    

This post would be funny with a picture of Janet bent over laughing :) 

3 Push Pattern? I'm not super familiar with it or the underlying rules to trigger, but seems like a possibility to be aware of here

Maybe. But I am starting to come around to the idea that it's different this time.  I don't think any of us have experienced full on fiscal domination mode like this. We're used to monetary policy cycles. Now the fiscal giant has been woken up....and she's pissed off. Fiscal is muchmore powerful than monetary....but it's never been used so openly outside of WWII.  I think they held off this long because they feared political backlash for deficit spending (waking up the fiscal giant). But now they've pretty much concluded that people are passive morons and it's game on.  Crashing higher is the new black swan risk.

Baby boomers might be the most selfish generation in history. I don't care if they are blue team or red team, they're going to vote themselves way more benefits than they ever payed for.  That only leaves money printing as an option. 

Capital D for defensive. Maybe this time is different though. Perma bulls will say it's because of AI energy needs. That's at least partly true. When the printing slows down even a hair we will find out quickly where the substitutions turn up.  Papered over until then. 

Also, with all the buybacks and a mostly frozen IPO market, the market has gotten a lot smaller while the amount of dollars chasing it has exploded higher. We may have to permanently adjust multiples higher simply because of scarcity combined with excess capital.  I'd like to see a crash stop at a higher market multiple than what has stopped crashes previously (generally a 13 - 15 PE) but after a QE bull market lasting since 2009 it feels like that may never happen again. Accelerating money printing into a hot economy shows that the game will change..if our leaders have anything to say about it.

The earnings yield premium for XLP is negative (earnings yields less than the risk free rate). That's wild.

I think you have to buy that chart but if the bottom falls out don't give your stop more room because you're in the safe staples sector. If it breaks it could drop 30% or more and still be historically expensive. In the meantime, it could inflate a lot further if the pattern plays out.

Chart looks great. That multiple on cereal though. Wow. Bananas.

FWIW - CoPilot has gotten really good at answering these types of market questions now. It was horrible just a couple months ago. 

Cramer even has a strategy / acronym for playing the "earnings beat" game and says companies are moronic if they don't follow it.  UPOD - always Under Promise and Over Deliver.

It's kind of amazing to me that the average beat rate per cycle isn't more like 98%. I mean, they set their own damn targets! 

I was thinking the same thing earlier and this came to mind:

I don't want to start
Any blasphemous rumors
But I think that God's
Got a sick sense of humor
And when I die
I expect to find Him laughing

  

Earnings "beats" are a pet peeve of mine. I posted this on X earlier today:

The 'earnings beat' statistics, as in 86% of companies have beat so far this quarter are contrived by people selling stocks. It's essentially meaningless but you hear it constantly. If a company comes in overvalued and then beats a target they set are they now undervalued? Answer: the "beat" doesn't help you determine that in any way. It's a sales tactic.

Janet has green light. Print away and push this market to the moon. Let's go! 

Beauty. Looks like it needs to rest but who knows? I like the little fundamentals section at the top of your chart.  Helps with a quick scan of what type of mover it might be (in this case, I can't really tell, but I wouldn't feel comfortable holding it over night without digging into the negative PE).  Market Surge gives a better funnymentals overlay....but that's $150 per month.  

What were GME and AMC at their pinnacles?  Or Bed Bath and Out of Business? Redbox? I think they even ran Blockbuster up at one point (who even knew that was still listed?).  I don't know the market cap to rev numbers on any of them. I gave up looking once I realized how the game worked. 

There are so many layers of irony in this story. I love it.  Fun watching Bloomberg and CNBC lose their minds as it goes up. Suddenly it's a bad thing if stocks that aren't really worth anything go up anyway. Took DJT to get their panties in a wad though -  they just smiled and laughed through the whole meme stock phenomenon when various founders of failed companies floated shares into the madness and pulled untold billions from the Apes. Also ironic that Trump was never a stock guy. Now he's getting crushed in commercial RE (40 Wall property is in deep doo doo....WSJ did a piece on it a couple of days ago)....but the stock market he was never into is saving him.  There's something for everyone in this story :)