Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I
didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is
higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the
move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to
complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and
once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've
been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last
chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace
more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have
noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move
down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand
zone
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the
wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get
a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is
interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be
retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib -
perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly
QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this
basically shows the same scenario
the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the
scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the
underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I
think one of those areas will offer resistance
what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long?
Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR
on a closing basis.
that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the
KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C
decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would
allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's
and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS
My only skeptical comment would be regarding timing. I would
expect the Fed to do what they need to, to keep the market propped
up until the election in November. I realize that has nothing to do
with TA, but it may affect the markets. I recall brophy’s
post about presidential election cycles.
it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry
breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time
of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options
of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade
that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info ,
and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation?
To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking
back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of
course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a
run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what
happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
Late to the party, but watching the Yen, Steve, is that an
leading diagonal, and if so, what makes it so, and what would have
negated it.
I posit that the global community is punishing Japan for not
pursuing "their" economic policy, but I am a conspiracy theorist (3
weeks short of conspiracy fact)
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised
capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily
EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974
low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet
updated).
Matt/Steve, your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks much,
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on
the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I
don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation
doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a
fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or
something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental
screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird
with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially
with head scratchers, like this one.
Weekend Newsletter
Posted by steve on 28th of Apr 2024 at 03:24 pm
Weekend Newsletter
ALAB good volume on range
Posted by steve on 28th of Apr 2024 at 03:22 pm
ALAB good volume on range break Friday - one to monitor
CAVA big volume move last week - some consolidation would be welcome
QRA Monday and its composition
Posted by steve on 28th of Apr 2024 at 01:29 pm
QRA Monday and its composition Wednesday
Japan - Macleod Finance
Posted by steve on 28th of Apr 2024 at 01:09 pm
Yen continues to weaken while JGB yields rise.
Thread to Peruse
Shapiro Thread
Natgas
Posted by steve on 28th of Apr 2024 at 12:15 pm
https://fortune.com/2024/04/27/natural-gas-prices-negative-territory-west-texas-supply-glut-weak-demand/
fortune.com
Natural gas prices in West Texas sink deeper into negative territory | Fortune
Intraday cash prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Basin fell to around -$3 per million British thermal units from around -50 cents earlier in the day.
Bitcoin shelf support, and BITI
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 07:44 pm
$BTCUSD - Chart Link that big shelf support is important for bitcoin, if it is broken, a quick move to the lower 50's will occur
$BTCUSD - Chart Link
BITI - Chart Link Inverse ETF is the way to play it, and has a nice base forming
and Bitcoin would likely follow
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 07:55 pm
and Bitcoin would likely follow the market down if that scenario were to play out that I illustrated below, vs being a safe haven.
SPX 60
Posted by steve on 27th of Apr 2024 at 01:14 pm
$SPX - Chart Link-
Marketwatch
Posted by steve on 27th of Apr 2024 at 10:49 am
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/main-street-isnt-saving-and-wall-street-isnt-shorting-in-an-anything-but-bonds-bull-market-says-bank-of-america-42efb556
marketwatch.com
marketwatch.com
How do we feel about
Posted by steverobin on 27th of Apr 2024 at 10:44 am
How do we feel about AMZN earnings?
GS weekly - looks like
Posted by foody518 on 27th of Apr 2024 at 12:20 am
GS weekly - looks like a bull flag continuation breakout
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:19 pm
Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last chart
Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days. A move down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand zone
$SPX - Chart Link shows the scenario on the daily SPX
SPY - Chart Link same scenario but on the SPY
$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get a move down to those major support zones
$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib - perhaps retest that trendline
QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this basically shows the same scenario
the daily KISS charts with
Posted by matt on 28th of Apr 2024 at 11:29 am
the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I think one of those areas will offer resistance
what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long? Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR on a closing basis.
that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS
This matches up with my
Posted by jonesy85 on 27th of Apr 2024 at 04:50 pm
This matches up with my cycle man Stan Harley. Called the recent correction, now bounce into mid month and we roll over again.
My only skeptical comment would
Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Apr 2024 at 10:02 am
My only skeptical comment would be regarding timing. I would expect the Fed to do what they need to, to keep the market propped up until the election in November. I realize that has nothing to do with TA, but it may affect the markets. I recall brophy’s post about presidential election cycles.
it's one option that is
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 11:40 am
it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info , and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation? To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
Extremely helpful charts. Thanks for
Posted by mdgfain on 27th of Apr 2024 at 09:28 am
Extremely helpful charts. Thanks for the perspective and potential scenarios, Matt.
Have a great weekend guys,
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:41 pm
Have a great weekend guys, I closed on a $65000 PV and whole house battery backup project, design and takeoffs today, start tomorrow.
Late to the party, but
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:40 pm
Late to the party, but watching the Yen, Steve, is that an leading diagonal, and if so, what makes it so, and what would have negated it.
I posit that the global community is punishing Japan for not pursuing "their" economic policy, but I am a conspiracy theorist (3 weeks short of conspiracy fact)
Wishing everyone a nice weekend
Posted by steve on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:01 pm
Wishing everyone a nice weekend
SAme! Thanks guys!!
Posted by breakout on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:02 pm
SAme! Thanks guys!!
from me as well, man
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:02 pm
from me as well, man was a boring day!
enjoy the rest of your Friday and have a good weekend!
Boring days are fine when
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:41 pm
Boring days are fine when I’m in Hawaii, but I didn’t find my 3% gain today to be boring.
where you at cousin
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:42 pm
where you at cousin
Boy AAPL has an UGLY
Posted by rbreese on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:45 pm
Boy AAPL has an UGLY candle today.
MSFT had a pretty weak
Posted by DK on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:32 pm
MSFT had a pretty weak close itself. Interesting
Might just get a buy
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:24 pm
Might just get a buy on ANF too, defying the bears.
Anticipating an NVDA buy on
Posted by mastermind on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:19 pm
Anticipating an NVDA buy on the STS today. Well, I bought back in anyway.
I went long NVDA, too,
Posted by te22 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 05:36 pm
I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974 low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet updated). Matt/Steve , your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated. Thanks much,
regarding your NVDA it looks
Posted by matt on 26th of Apr 2024 at 09:20 pm
regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high
SPY Views
Posted by steve on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:15 pm
SPY - Chart Link
SPY - Chart Link
RBRK ... New IPO this
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:50 pm
RBRK ... New IPO this week ...
ANF - Watching for another
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 12:44 pm
ANF - Watching for another short entry on this overinflated joke ... heading into stiffer horizontal resistance and it`s flat 50dma
I don't understand what they're
Posted by DigiNomad on 26th of Apr 2024 at 01:19 pm
I don't understand what they're selling but the valuation doesn't scream "short me" -- it looks pretty reasonable on a fundamental basis. Again, I don't get it - I guess I'm too old or something - but it triggers as a buy for me on a lot of fundamental screens. That doesn't mean they aren't doing something weird with their financials...that's always a possibility, especially with head scratchers, like this one.
Posted by mla127 on 26th of Apr 2024 at 03:45 pm
Its hard to imagine that
Posted by steveo on 26th of Apr 2024 at 04:37 pm
Its hard to imagine that any retail is doing stelllar??? Am I missing something??