Weekend Newsletter

ALAB good volume on range break Friday - one to monitor 

CAVA big volume move last week - some consolidation would be welcome

QRA Monday and its composition Wednesday

Yen continues to weaken while JGB yields rise. 

Thread to Peruse

Shapiro Thread

the daily KISS charts with the MA ribbon also for now favor the scenario I laid out. Notice MA ribbon is pinching from the underside and price is coming up underside of the 50 MA and ATR - I think one of those areas will offer resistance

what would trigger the KISS daily SPX and QQQ's to go back long? Right from there you would have to have price go well above the ATR on a closing basis.

that said, if this wave B lower high scenario plays out, the KISS system then has an opportunity to long after the wave C decline and then the ABC buy conditions may kick in that would allow these to go back long just 2 or 3 days off the lows. ABC's and washout longs are my favorite triggers on the KISS

and Bitcoin would likely follow the market down if that scenario were to play out that I illustrated below, vs being a safe haven.

$BTCUSD - Chart Link that big shelf support is important for bitcoin, if it is broken, a quick move to the lower 50's will occur

$BTCUSD - Chart Link

BITI - Chart Link Inverse ETF is the way to play it, and has a nice base forming

This matches up with my cycle man Stan Harley. Called the recent  correction, now bounce into mid month and we roll over again. 

$SPX - Chart Link-

it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options of course that would lead to a new high right away.

Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info , and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation?  To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a run away inflation.

again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what happens and our triggers:   As we always say

Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens

How do we feel about AMZN earnings?

My only skeptical comment would be regarding timing. I would expect the Fed to do what they need to, to keep the market propped up until the election in November. I realize that has nothing to do with TA, but it may affect the markets.  I recall brophy’s post about presidential election cycles. 

Extremely helpful charts. Thanks for the perspective and potential  scenarios, Matt.

GS weekly - looks like a bull flag continuation breakout

regarding your NVDA it looks okay, but refer to my big post on the possible scenario for the SPX, if that were to unfold, then I don't see how NVDA would not make a lower high

Here's the scenario I discussed in Thursday's newsletter but I didn't market it up. Because of the daily symmetry break there is higher odds now of a lower high forming. Under this scenario the move down could be wave A, and we are unfolding in an abc bounce to complete wave B lower high (supported by the symmetry break) and once that's complete a move down for wave C. If you recall, we've been showing such a scenario on the weekly QQQ's, see the last chart

Wave B's often retrace 50% to 61.8%, however they can retrace more than that and with the market one thing Steve and I have noticed is that moves are more exaggerated these days.  A move down could take the SPX back to that long term support and demand zone

$SPX - Chart Link shows the scenario on the daily SPX

SPY - Chart Link same scenario but on the SPY

$SPX - Chart Link weekly chart, if the wave count is correct, basically once this wave B is over, you get a move down to those major support zones

$SPX - Chart Link - this daily chart is interesting, that broken trendline is another area that could be retested if the SPX did a larger retracement than a 61.8% fib - perhaps retest that trendline

QQQ - Chart Link - here's that weekly QQQ's chart that we've been showing since last fall - this basically shows the same scenario

I went long NVDA, too, after META, GOOGL and MSFT all raised capex on AI. Closed above 20, 50, 200 daily SMAs, 5 & 9 daily EMAs, and approaching 61.8% ($890.75) retrace of $756.06-$974 low/high. Notable that KISS didn't go long (unless not yet updated). Matt/Steve , your opinion on NVDA would be greatly appreciated. Thanks much,

where you at cousin