Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 04:14 pm
VWAP - maybe stupid question, but aren't 100% of VWAP's
"anchored"? People throw out VWAP and anchored VWAP like they
are different things....but how is the math for VWAP possible
without an anchor somewhere in time?
Posted by elementsix on 13th of May 2024 at 03:44 pm
Meme Stocks - these tend to be late cycle so I feel like a
good pullback is in order. That being said, I will take the spy
entry with the system with a very tight stop.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:58 pm
Yep, the problem is that if you look at a longer term chart,
we've been late cycle for a LONG time in a bull market that started
with QE in 2009. Turns out that if you print enough money you
can effectively tamp down volatility and destroy the business
cycle. There are some very negative effects, but it looks rad
on long term charts.
So I guess on Friday the ES breakout system went long - the
problem with TS being a Friday it didn't show up until I rebooted
on weekend
Currently price is basically at the same price it went long
I'm not super in love with it here, if a deeper 4th wave
pullback occurs it may take some heat or get stopped out (remember
the breakout uses Stops. But is what it is and that's the thing
about systems, you can second guess every trade, so I'll go ahead
and issue it
The breakout can have a maximum only of 2 entries before it
stops out
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:48 pm
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What is a "good" CPI
print for the market (e.g. what print will cause it to go up)?
Once again, I think it plays out as follows (2 out of 3
options lead to market higher):
- if CPI is hot, the market likely does a quick headfake lower
and then screams higher (maybe same day but definitely within a
couple of days to a week).
- if CPI is flat / inline, the market will likely move higher
but not with the same conviction as option 1 (next catalyst for
face ripper rally is NVDA).
- if CPI misses on the downside, especially if by more than
.1, the market will most likely gap higher and then drop. The
bigger the miss (lower than expected inflation), the bigger the
drop.
I've been nailing these for a while now, but does
anyone have a different take?
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:20 pm
I think a downside miss on CPI would provide a doozy of a "game
on - hold my beer" moment for Janet. Essentially, they're
likely waiting to print big into any inflation weakness.
Also, the Feb is back to the cusp of outright QE now (they
only have "not QE" running at the moment) and a weak print would
give them cover to cross the rubicon once more. Interesting,
but also kind of obvious playbook when recessions are simply not
allowed to happen....at least not until after November.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The whisper number I've been hearing is essentially to expect a
"good" print - meaning weaker inflation than the forecast. I think
these rumours might be keeping a bit of a fundamental lid on an
otherwise bullish technical setup.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 01:53 pm
BAND on the run.
I really like the risk reward setups on quite a few of the
timeframes right now. There are sell cycles on a few of the
longer time frames, but my guess is that price will eventually
break through those to confirm a wave 3 move.
On second thought - this could be wave B (bear flag). Funny
how different types of charts give different looks. I'm
leaning towards wave B now...but it's already gone up about 1%
since my initial call, so maybe win win. haha
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:35 pm
Yep, handset production died about then, but BB may have pivoted
successfully to medical/auto cloud encryption services, now in
about 200M cars according to the press. The encryption tech was
well respected, so has spent the last decade in meme-type
speculation about what would come of it.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:08 pm
Yep, meme stock fave. The list of meme stocks is essentially a
whos who of completely or mostly failed companies that are still
trading for who know what reason (probably more expensive to clean
up and remove than to just let die a slow death....like closing out
an option that's only worth .05).
BB I think was one of the many that took advantage of the
last mania to sell into it and fleece the Apes for some capital to
try some new ideas to get them back on track. AMC and GME were the
poster children for fleecing the Apes, but they were by no means
the only ones playing that game.
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
Same here. My personal conspiracy theory is that BB failed to
recognize the potential of phone entertainment b/c of the insane
data rates charged by Canuck com monopolies at that time (and
arguably still)— maybe the movie will tell me different!
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:39 pm
I still want to see "Dumb Money." Fail on the algos for
not recommending it to me for purchase / rent already. It took this
post to remind me I wanted to see it..
CNBC - Biden will announce
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 05:05 pm
CNBC - Biden will announce tariffs on Chinese tomorrow to protect.... consumers. LoL. There is no shame with the gaslighting anymore!
VWAP - maybe stupid question,
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 04:14 pm
VWAP - maybe stupid question, but aren't 100% of VWAP's "anchored"? People throw out VWAP and anchored VWAP like they are different things....but how is the math for VWAP possible without an anchor somewhere in time?
VWAP is static and resets
Posted by mkwalsh on 13th of May 2024 at 05:58 pm
VWAP is static and resets daily. An "anchored" VWAP is dynamic and can be recalculated from any point in time you choose (the anchor).
Meme Casino is closed but
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 04:03 pm
Meme Casino is closed but still trading pretty heavy in AH. YouTube day trading shows are so happy with themselves right now. Christmas in May!
Meme Stocks - these tend
Posted by elementsix on 13th of May 2024 at 03:44 pm
Meme Stocks - these tend to be late cycle so I feel like a good pullback is in order. That being said, I will take the spy entry with the system with a very tight stop.
Yep, the problem is that
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:58 pm
Yep, the problem is that if you look at a longer term chart, we've been late cycle for a LONG time in a bull market that started with QE in 2009. Turns out that if you print enough money you can effectively tamp down volatility and destroy the business cycle. There are some very negative effects, but it looks rad on long term charts.
Big up day on the
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:33 pm
Big up day on the VIX and didn't sold off so far ... CPI release hedging ? market barely budged today ...
Yes normal ahead of big
Posted by steve on 13th of May 2024 at 03:36 pm
Yes normal ahead of big news
Any update on the KISS
Posted by jonesy85 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:25 pm
Any update on the KISS higher Performance being rolled out? Over under by July4th?
SCCO
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:19 pm
SCCO
SPY and ES mean reversion systems
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 03:15 pm
So I guess on Friday the ES breakout system went long - the problem with TS being a Friday it didn't show up until I rebooted on weekend
Currently price is basically at the same price it went long
I'm not super in love with it here, if a deeper 4th wave pullback occurs it may take some heat or get stopped out (remember the breakout uses Stops. But is what it is and that's the thing about systems, you can second guess every trade, so I'll go ahead and issue it
The breakout can have a maximum only of 2 entries before it stops out
i will make it 1/2
Posted by morton7 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:31 pm
i will make it 1/2 order then thx
Your STS tables gave us
Posted by Trendie on 13th of May 2024 at 03:23 pm
Your STS tables gave us daily longs on SPY and DIA on May 3. I have a little of each.
CPI print - back to
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:48 pm
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What is a "good" CPI print for the market (e.g. what print will cause it to go up)?
Once again, I think it plays out as follows (2 out of 3 options lead to market higher):
- if CPI is hot, the market likely does a quick headfake lower and then screams higher (maybe same day but definitely within a couple of days to a week).
- if CPI is flat / inline, the market will likely move higher but not with the same conviction as option 1 (next catalyst for face ripper rally is NVDA).
- if CPI misses on the downside, especially if by more than .1, the market will most likely gap higher and then drop. The bigger the miss (lower than expected inflation), the bigger the drop.
I've been nailing these for a while now, but does anyone have a different take?
Your synopsis sounds good to
Posted by keyhole7 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
Your synopsis sounds good to me Digi. I hope the first option plays out.
I think a downside miss
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:20 pm
I think a downside miss on CPI would provide a doozy of a "game on - hold my beer" moment for Janet. Essentially, they're likely waiting to print big into any inflation weakness. Also, the Feb is back to the cusp of outright QE now (they only have "not QE" running at the moment) and a weak print would give them cover to cross the rubicon once more. Interesting, but also kind of obvious playbook when recessions are simply not allowed to happen....at least not until after November.
The whisper number I've been
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The whisper number I've been hearing is essentially to expect a "good" print - meaning weaker inflation than the forecast. I think these rumours might be keeping a bit of a fundamental lid on an otherwise bullish technical setup.
XLI logical pullback from that double top area
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
XLI - Chart Link
ES 5245 from last week,
Posted by ruidoso on 13th of May 2024 at 02:37 pm
ES 5245 from last week, resistance, till it ain't:)
BAND on the run. I
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 01:53 pm
BAND on the run.
I really like the risk reward setups on quite a few of the timeframes right now. There are sell cycles on a few of the longer time frames, but my guess is that price will eventually break through those to confirm a wave 3 move.
On second thought - this could be wave B (bear flag). Funny how different types of charts give different looks. I'm leaning towards wave B now...but it's already gone up about 1% since my initial call, so maybe win win. haha
DT (Dynatrace)
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 01:09 pm
DT (Dynatrace)
AZO ... I think it's
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 01:02 pm
AZO ... I think it's pretty clear that 3K is solid resistance now... lol
BB ... another one ...
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:57 pm
BB ... another one ...
Wait. Blackberry is still around?
Posted by Trendie on 13th of May 2024 at 02:05 pm
Wait. Blackberry is still around? Woooooow. Thought that company would have gone belly up a decade ago.
Yep, handset production died about
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:35 pm
Yep, handset production died about then, but BB may have pivoted successfully to medical/auto cloud encryption services, now in about 200M cars according to the press. The encryption tech was well respected, so has spent the last decade in meme-type speculation about what would come of it.
Yep, meme stock fave. The
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:08 pm
Yep, meme stock fave. The list of meme stocks is essentially a whos who of completely or mostly failed companies that are still trading for who know what reason (probably more expensive to clean up and remove than to just let die a slow death....like closing out an option that's only worth .05).
BB I think was one of the many that took advantage of the last mania to sell into it and fleece the Apes for some capital to try some new ideas to get them back on track. AMC and GME were the poster children for fleecing the Apes, but they were by no means the only ones playing that game.
Speaking of Blackberry ... Wanted
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 02:17 pm
Speaking of Blackberry ... Wanted to watch it for awhile now ... still haven't took the time to do so ...
Same here. My personal conspiracy
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
Same here. My personal conspiracy theory is that BB failed to recognize the potential of phone entertainment b/c of the insane data rates charged by Canuck com monopolies at that time (and arguably still)— maybe the movie will tell me different!
I still want to see
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:39 pm
I still want to see "Dumb Money." Fail on the algos for not recommending it to me for purchase / rent already. It took this post to remind me I wanted to see it..
MPW another ape stock that
Posted by steve on 13th of May 2024 at 01:01 pm
MPW another ape stock that ran earlier
UA ... I had a
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:56 pm
UA ... I had a few like this from my weekend scan ... spiked above the trend line and retreated back .... I didn't take that one ...
RL
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:54 pm
RL
MCK
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:53 pm
MCK
L (Loews)
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:51 pm
L (Loews)
JBLU ... had this on
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 12:50 pm
JBLU ... had this on my list for the weekend ... didn't alarmed it ...