it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry
breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time
of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options
of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade
that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info ,
and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation?
To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking
back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of
course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a
run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what
happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 10:29 pm
The fed is in the backseat now anyway. We have transitioned into
fiscal dominance. We're just so used to following the Feds moves to
inform our thoughts about potential future market direction and old
habits die hard. Not many have alive have traded through a period
of fiscal dominance (even fewer even realize we've switched)
and this one is looking to be like no other...the 40's will
be the nearest analog.
Given the lack of historical analogue for this unprecedented
dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't follow
historical norms. We've already seen hints at disconnects (remember
when we blew through 4600 like it's wasn't even there?). I think
we're much more likely to act like an emerging market going
forward. That would include maybe a messy crash type event here
shortly, but the following YCC intervention will most likely lead
to a rally like has never been seen in the US. Asset prices are
likely to go through the roof...Zimbabwe style. We could even skip
the whole crash part and just start accelerating higher. It kind of
depends on when they turn on YCC type measures (which the Fed will
be forced into because they are being dominated by the fiscal
side).
it's one option that is
SPX and one scenario the abc
Posted by matt on 27th of Apr 2024 at 11:40 am
it's one option that is valid and would fit the the symmetry breaks for a lower high B wave, and the typical weakness this time of the year, the sell in April/May go away, there are other options of course that would lead to a new high right away.
Regarding the Fed, the problem with that is how do you trade that info? You can't, what are the trade triggers from that info , and it's not hard info or facts, it's just some speculation? To me the Fed has been pretty steadfast on rates even walking back there earlier in the year optimism about possible cuts, and of course they have to be extremely careful not to raise and cause a run away inflation.
again all we can do is analyze the charts, and respond to what happens and our triggers: As we always say
Project/Analyze, then monitor, and adjust to what happens
The fed is in the
Posted by DigiNomad on 28th of Apr 2024 at 10:29 pm
The fed is in the backseat now anyway. We have transitioned into fiscal dominance. We're just so used to following the Feds moves to inform our thoughts about potential future market direction and old habits die hard. Not many have alive have traded through a period of fiscal dominance (even fewer even realize we've switched) and this one is looking to be like no other...the 40's will be the nearest analog.
Given the lack of historical analogue for this unprecedented dominance, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't follow historical norms. We've already seen hints at disconnects (remember when we blew through 4600 like it's wasn't even there?). I think we're much more likely to act like an emerging market going forward. That would include maybe a messy crash type event here shortly, but the following YCC intervention will most likely lead to a rally like has never been seen in the US. Asset prices are likely to go through the roof...Zimbabwe style. We could even skip the whole crash part and just start accelerating higher. It kind of depends on when they turn on YCC type measures (which the Fed will be forced into because they are being dominated by the fiscal side).
QRA this week
Posted by steve on 29th of Apr 2024 at 08:18 am
QRA this week