Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:20 pm
I think a downside miss on CPI would provide a doozy of a "game
on - hold my beer" moment for Janet. Essentially, they're
likely waiting to print big into any inflation weakness.
Also, the Feb is back to the cusp of outright QE now (they
only have "not QE" running at the moment) and a weak print would
give them cover to cross the rubicon once more. Interesting,
but also kind of obvious playbook when recessions are simply not
allowed to happen....at least not until after November.
So I guess on Friday the ES breakout system went long - the
problem with TS being a Friday it didn't show up until I rebooted
on weekend
Currently price is basically at the same price it went long
I'm not super in love with it here, if a deeper 4th wave
pullback occurs it may take some heat or get stopped out (remember
the breakout uses Stops. But is what it is and that's the thing
about systems, you can second guess every trade, so I'll go ahead
and issue it
The breakout can have a maximum only of 2 entries before it
stops out
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The whisper number I've been hearing is essentially to expect a
"good" print - meaning weaker inflation than the forecast. I think
these rumours might be keeping a bit of a fundamental lid on an
otherwise bullish technical setup.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:48 pm
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What is a "good" CPI
print for the market (e.g. what print will cause it to go up)?
Once again, I think it plays out as follows (2 out of 3
options lead to market higher):
- if CPI is hot, the market likely does a quick headfake lower
and then screams higher (maybe same day but definitely within a
couple of days to a week).
- if CPI is flat / inline, the market will likely move higher
but not with the same conviction as option 1 (next catalyst for
face ripper rally is NVDA).
- if CPI misses on the downside, especially if by more than
.1, the market will most likely gap higher and then drop. The
bigger the miss (lower than expected inflation), the bigger the
drop.
I've been nailing these for a while now, but does
anyone have a different take?
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
Same here. My personal conspiracy theory is that BB failed to
recognize the potential of phone entertainment b/c of the insane
data rates charged by Canuck com monopolies at that time (and
arguably still)— maybe the movie will tell me different!
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:39 pm
I still want to see "Dumb Money." Fail on the algos for
not recommending it to me for purchase / rent already. It took this
post to remind me I wanted to see it..
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:35 pm
Yep, handset production died about then, but BB may have pivoted
successfully to medical/auto cloud encryption services, now in
about 200M cars according to the press. The encryption tech was
well respected, so has spent the last decade in meme-type
speculation about what would come of it.
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:08 pm
Yep, meme stock fave. The list of meme stocks is essentially a
whos who of completely or mostly failed companies that are still
trading for who know what reason (probably more expensive to clean
up and remove than to just let die a slow death....like closing out
an option that's only worth .05).
BB I think was one of the many that took advantage of the
last mania to sell into it and fleece the Apes for some capital to
try some new ideas to get them back on track. AMC and GME were the
poster children for fleecing the Apes, but they were by no means
the only ones playing that game.
Any update on the KISS
Posted by jonesy85 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:25 pm
Any update on the KISS higher Performance being rolled out? Over under by July4th?
Your STS tables gave us
SPY and ES mean reversion systems
Posted by Trendie on 13th of May 2024 at 03:23 pm
Your STS tables gave us daily longs on SPY and DIA on May 3. I have a little of each.
I think a downside miss
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:20 pm
I think a downside miss on CPI would provide a doozy of a "game on - hold my beer" moment for Janet. Essentially, they're likely waiting to print big into any inflation weakness. Also, the Feb is back to the cusp of outright QE now (they only have "not QE" running at the moment) and a weak print would give them cover to cross the rubicon once more. Interesting, but also kind of obvious playbook when recessions are simply not allowed to happen....at least not until after November.
SCCO
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:19 pm
SCCO
SPY and ES mean reversion systems
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 03:15 pm
So I guess on Friday the ES breakout system went long - the problem with TS being a Friday it didn't show up until I rebooted on weekend
Currently price is basically at the same price it went long
I'm not super in love with it here, if a deeper 4th wave pullback occurs it may take some heat or get stopped out (remember the breakout uses Stops. But is what it is and that's the thing about systems, you can second guess every trade, so I'll go ahead and issue it
The breakout can have a maximum only of 2 entries before it stops out
GME ...
GME +8
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:14 pm
GME ...
Your synopsis sounds good to
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What ...
Posted by keyhole7 on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
Your synopsis sounds good to me Digi. I hope the first option plays out.
The whisper number I've been
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 03:00 pm
The whisper number I've been hearing is essentially to expect a "good" print - meaning weaker inflation than the forecast. I think these rumours might be keeping a bit of a fundamental lid on an otherwise bullish technical setup.
god taking candle from a
GME +8
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 02:59 pm
god taking candle from a baby all day long with AMC
CPI print - back to
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:48 pm
CPI print - back to the same ole question. What is a "good" CPI print for the market (e.g. what print will cause it to go up)?
Once again, I think it plays out as follows (2 out of 3 options lead to market higher):
- if CPI is hot, the market likely does a quick headfake lower and then screams higher (maybe same day but definitely within a couple of days to a week).
- if CPI is flat / inline, the market will likely move higher but not with the same conviction as option 1 (next catalyst for face ripper rally is NVDA).
- if CPI misses on the downside, especially if by more than .1, the market will most likely gap higher and then drop. The bigger the miss (lower than expected inflation), the bigger the drop.
I've been nailing these for a while now, but does anyone have a different take?
Same here. My personal conspiracy
BB ... another one ...
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
Same here. My personal conspiracy theory is that BB failed to recognize the potential of phone entertainment b/c of the insane data rates charged by Canuck com monopolies at that time (and arguably still)— maybe the movie will tell me different!
XLI logical pullback from that double top area
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 02:43 pm
XLI - Chart Link
GME +8
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 02:39 pm
I still want to see
BB ... another one ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:39 pm
I still want to see "Dumb Money." Fail on the algos for not recommending it to me for purchase / rent already. It took this post to remind me I wanted to see it..
ES 5245 from last week,
Posted by ruidoso on 13th of May 2024 at 02:37 pm
ES 5245 from last week, resistance, till it ain't:)
geez this stupid AMD, I've
GME +8
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2024 at 02:36 pm
geez this stupid AMD, I've traded it all day long, just buying every little abc pullback, nutty
even on that 2 min Heiken Ashi chart you could have just bought every time the heiken ashi bar turned green
Yep, handset production died about
BB ... another one ...
Posted by mschwand on 13th of May 2024 at 02:35 pm
Yep, handset production died about then, but BB may have pivoted successfully to medical/auto cloud encryption services, now in about 200M cars according to the press. The encryption tech was well respected, so has spent the last decade in meme-type speculation about what would come of it.
Speaking of Blackberry ... Wanted
BB ... another one ...
Posted by mla127 on 13th of May 2024 at 02:17 pm
Speaking of Blackberry ... Wanted to watch it for awhile now ... still haven't took the time to do so ...
Yep, meme stock fave. The
BB ... another one ...
Posted by DigiNomad on 13th of May 2024 at 02:08 pm
Yep, meme stock fave. The list of meme stocks is essentially a whos who of completely or mostly failed companies that are still trading for who know what reason (probably more expensive to clean up and remove than to just let die a slow death....like closing out an option that's only worth .05).
BB I think was one of the many that took advantage of the last mania to sell into it and fleece the Apes for some capital to try some new ideas to get them back on track. AMC and GME were the poster children for fleecing the Apes, but they were by no means the only ones playing that game.
Wait. Blackberry is still around?
BB ... another one ...
Posted by Trendie on 13th of May 2024 at 02:05 pm
Wait. Blackberry is still around? Woooooow. Thought that company would have gone belly up a decade ago.