The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.

29% short ratio and a

short the fraud? big gap below

Posted by DigiNomad on 7th of May 2024 at 01:57 pm

29% short ratio and a 115% quarterly EPS surprise.   Shorting seems like a recipe for getting your head squeezed off by an WSB APE and paraded around the square before putting it on a stake at the entry to the town     

Yep. Central banks have really

man, really low VVIX

Posted by DigiNomad on 7th of May 2024 at 01:48 pm

Yep. Central banks have really gotten good at controlling volatility compared to pre GFC.  Makes sense without getting too complicated if you just think of it like them both saying and also demonstrating time and again that they are acting as the puts in the market so that the market doesn't have to buy puts (which is what the VIX measures).  

We're at the point now where most believe 100% that the central bank will backstop any issue that comes along, no matter what. Even I believe it now...otherwise, I would be broke. It used to be less clear that they would bail out anything and everything so the VIX was more active.  Remember the famous "it's Not QE"?  (statement came a couple of years before "it's not a recession"). We just did it again just last week and, when asked, Janet answered "it's not QE" yet again. We've been in that era for a while now and the VIX is a simple reflection. 

Apple earnings were not impressive. Rounding error beats...less than 1%... and a buyout that wreaked of panic and was a dumb financial move except for the marketing aspect. Yet we see articles and newsletter producers everywhere talking about market turning due to blowout Apple earnings. Most are probably just reading headlines and then lazily regurgitating nonsense for their content and before you know it everyone assumes it's a fact because they read or heard it in 10 places.  Market turned because of coordinated support of the JPY via weakening the dollar with various forms of QE and dovish rhetoric. The only reason the details matter instead of just the trend is when you're trying to figure out whether or not the trend is likely to continue. If the rally had anything to do with Apple earnings then I would say the rally doesn't have a snowball chance in hell of sustaining. But it's not about AAPL earnings.It's 100% about money printing so I think it has a very good chance of sustaining as our purchasing power is destroyed via currency dilution and asset prices rise because the currency used to purchase them is worth less today than it was yesterday.

Consider this - a "perfect"

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 04:37 pm

Consider this - a "perfect" outcome for the central planners right now would be able to print money,  redistribute wealth and DEFLATE asset prices at the same time (it's not as crazy as it sounds...they really do want asset prices to go lower). That is absolutely leftist policy outcome nirvana.   It's completely impossible in practice, because, umm...math and human nature intervene... but that's how society ends up in these pickles time and time again. Every culture that comes along thinks they can print money, redistribute and not inflate...all of them, without exception, throughout history...and it never ever ever works. But they never ever ever stop trying.

*If they didn't want asset prices to go lower, they would have eased interest rates a LONG time ago. It's a primary but unstated goal at times like these. 

Warnings for NVO and LLY

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 02:44 pm

Warnings for NVO and LLY - the mega trend appears to be in a bit of danger. 

Yep, I figured out Motley

KISS systems heads up

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 02:24 pm

Yep, I figured out Motley was the worst service very early on. I cringe now when people send me articles from them suggesting picks...but try to be nice and simply verify with other services. 

IBD Live now. Brian Shannon

KISS systems heads up

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 12:33 pm

IBD Live now. Brian Shannon was on this week. 

The evil CANSLIM people that

KISS systems heads up

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 12:32 pm

The evil CANSLIM people that think fundamentals are just as important as technicals and preach a blended approach?  Heresy!   

If we choose the left,

KISS systems heads up

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 12:22 pm

If we choose the left, will you keep us notified intraday on a potential long trigger? 

My rally signal was when JPOW and Janet confirmed monetizing the debt and bailing out JPY.  Money printing bonanza. 

SPX 1hr - I have

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 11:09 am

SPX 1hr - I have 5 waves off the bottom based on the cycle indicator and MA ribbon.   Logical place to rest.  I think all good on the bull side as long as we stay above 5080 on what is likely to be an ABC playing out here, eventually (1 hr time frame, so it might take a while).  

I had it on my

DELL--jumping back in.

Posted by DigiNomad on 3rd of May 2024 at 10:55 am

I had it on my buy list but the fundamentals are wacky. Huge EPS growth, but literally negative sales growth (not just slowing growth) and not great forward estimates. That's a recipe for disaster when the market if and when the market is ever not in money printing bull mode where valuations don't matter. Or maybe I read the numbers wrong...

That pretty much defines stagflation, but don't say it out loud around anyone with a political agenda :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yk257jac_3Q

Powell after a 59 on prices and 49 on what amounts to growth (PMI) - "I was alive during the last stagflation. You guys don't know what you're talking about! You're being ridiculous."  It's actually his job to gaslight the global population because perception leads to reality a lot of times in the econ world, but the constant gaslighting by the media for political reasons is inexcusable.  
I watched a pod last night where the guy made the case that the media continually saying everything is great when it's clearly not is leading to a massive and persistent rise in Marxism. He made a very good case (Eurodollar University). In other words, maybe people aren't smart enough to know why JPOW and the media are wrong, but everyone has this sense they are being gaslit simply because of their personal experiences in the economy. This leads them to despair about a system where apparently everything is great but they're not great, which leads them to Marxism.

USA ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices For April 59.2 Vs 55.0 Est.; 53.4 Prior
USA ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI For April 49.4 Vs 52.0 Est.; 51.4 Prior

Newsletter

Subscribe to our email list for regular free market updates
as well as a chance to get coupons!